Sitemap - 2025 - arg min
There is no data-generating distribution
There's got to be a better way!
Defining Reinforcement Learning Down
Random Search for Random Search
Reformist Reinforcement Learning
Instrumentalized Actuarial Predictions
What is the chance of a Beast Quake?
How do you know so much about swallows?
How Snake Oil Becomes Normal Technology
Patterns, Predictions, and Actions (revisited)
Patterns, Predictions, and Actions (2025)
Inference From the Best Prediction?
All our games turn into Calvinball
Announcing The Irrational Decision
The unpredictability conundrum
Are developers finally out of a job?
Individual experiences and collective evidence
One out of five AI researchers
In Defense of Defensive Forecasting
The Good, The Bad, and The Science
Computer science is what computer scientists do
Machine Learning Evaluation - A Syllabus
Maybe just believing in AGI makes AGI exist.
What does test set error test?
Overfitting to theories of overfitting
Holding out for an explanation
Are radiologists finally out of a job?