Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Kalen's avatar

I've been thinking a bit lately about how much of the cultural currency of the tech industry hinges on a carefully curated perception of inevitability. Technology is just stuff made by people; there is always going to be multiple worlds accessible from here based on what people decide to work on on one hand and use or prohibit on the other. But canting the discussion towards 'what technology wants' or 'what's going to happen' in a way that could be meaningfully and dispassionately predicted like a simple physical system really just leaves investing and buying first as the only moves on the board. 'What should people work on' is an empowering question, 'what do you guess you'll be able to buy' is not.

Expand full comment
Onid's avatar

That last paragraph touches on something that’s always bothered me with all the talk about superforecasters and prediction markets. Rationalists talk about these things as if making them mainstream would increase our ability to predict the future with no adverse effects.

But to me it always seemed likely that the more mainstream these groups become, the more predictions themselves will influence events, and the more incentive there will be to manipulate them.

Expand full comment
2 more comments...

No posts