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All models are wrong, but some are dangerous
Doyle's counterexample and the paradox of prediction in optimal control.
Feb 23
•
Ben Recht
13
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All models are wrong, but some are dangerous
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6
Bracing for impact
What is the role of uncertainty quantification in feedback systems?
Feb 20
•
Ben Recht
12
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Bracing for impact
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You take away the context
Adding information should simplify decision-making, right?
Feb 16
•
Ben Recht
15
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You take away the context
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4
Theories of recourse
Exploring the manifold of decision frameworks
Feb 15
•
Ben Recht
11
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Theories of recourse
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4
Predictions and actions redux
On the complex interactions between uncertainty quantification and recourse.
Feb 13
•
Ben Recht
12
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Predictions and actions redux
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5
Cover Songs
You can't always get what you want
Feb 9
•
Ben Recht
11
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Cover Songs
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14
From Intervals to Bands
Prediction bands are free, but do you want them?
Feb 8
•
Ben Recht
6
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From Intervals to Bands
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25
From coin tosses to option pricing
Building prediction intervals using what we know about confidence intervals
Feb 7
•
Ben Recht
10
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From coin tosses to option pricing
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When is the future the same as the past?
Minimal assumptions for prediction
Feb 6
•
Ben Recht
13
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When is the future the same as the past?
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3
Guess and check
Unpacking the logic of the prediction interval
Feb 5
•
Ben Recht
14
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Guess and check
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January 2024
More Like One Out of A Million...
We should be unsatisfied with unverifiable measurement.
Jan 26
•
Ben Recht
14
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More Like One Out of A Million...
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Randomly Revealing Hidden Truths
Thinking about confidence intervals as randomized algorithms
Jan 25
•
Ben Recht
12
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Randomly Revealing Hidden Truths
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8
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