Archive - arg min

Individual experiences and collective evidence

Jessica Dai on theory for the world as it could be

Jun 24 •

One out of five AI researchers

To figure out the purpose of forecasting, I put on my Dan Davies hat and ask, “What do forecasts do?”

Jun 20 •

Probability Is Only A Game

Ruthless subjective probability without Bayes' Rule

Jun 18 •

Restatements or Forecasts?

A slightly more sophisticated example of Defensive Forecasting.

Jun 17 •

In Defense of Defensive Forecasting

Is superforecasting just sneaky accounting?

Jun 16 •

Strunk and White for Science

Validity as a style guide for telling stories about correlations

Jun 13 •

Milton Friedman's p-values

Remind me what happens when a measure becomes a target.

Jun 10 •

The Open Marketplace of Ideas

If peer review only refers to papers, it is not defensible

Jun 5 •

A Defense of Peer Review

Jun 3 •

May 2025

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