This was funny: "You can see how a person who spent too much time in online poker rooms or fantasy baseball thinks they can put odds on the outcomes of elections and other one-off events on their wildly popular blog".
Though I think Nate Silver would say that these are just outcomes from running many simulations of his model, and that the word "probability" is just a shorthand for the fraction of simulations that are true.
Awesome article as always, Professor! When thinking about betting, we still have to appeal to some asymptotic notion of probability, right? As the number of times we sample from the outcome distribution goes to infinity, the probability is the proportion of sampled outcomes that have the desired result. Is there any way of quantifying the notion of betting without appealing to infinity like this?
This was funny: "You can see how a person who spent too much time in online poker rooms or fantasy baseball thinks they can put odds on the outcomes of elections and other one-off events on their wildly popular blog".
Though I think Nate Silver would say that these are just outcomes from running many simulations of his model, and that the word "probability" is just a shorthand for the fraction of simulations that are true.
Awesome article as always, Professor! When thinking about betting, we still have to appeal to some asymptotic notion of probability, right? As the number of times we sample from the outcome distribution goes to infinity, the probability is the proportion of sampled outcomes that have the desired result. Is there any way of quantifying the notion of betting without appealing to infinity like this?