I like the framing around, "what is the probability for?" And the answer in this case is that it is for the bookies. It kind of reminds me of the sleeping beauty problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem), where it seems to me that the "correct" probability depends on what you plan on doing with it.
It would be interesting if a team started using analytics to determine which play would gain more fans. Give us the brain-rot sports.
Not so sure about this. Winning teams attract more fans and most sports have a significant home ground advantage. So, with probability well over 0.5, someone who goes to a home game for their team will see them win.
WIth sport as with drama, the successful product is one where the outcome is in enough doubt to keep us excited but where the good guys win in the end.
I like the framing around, "what is the probability for?" And the answer in this case is that it is for the bookies. It kind of reminds me of the sleeping beauty problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem), where it seems to me that the "correct" probability depends on what you plan on doing with it.
It would be interesting if a team started using analytics to determine which play would gain more fans. Give us the brain-rot sports.
Hmm, the Dart-Skattebo Giants might leaning in on your brain-rot idea...
"No one wants to watch a rigged game."
Not so sure about this. Winning teams attract more fans and most sports have a significant home ground advantage. So, with probability well over 0.5, someone who goes to a home game for their team will see them win.
WIth sport as with drama, the successful product is one where the outcome is in enough doubt to keep us excited but where the good guys win in the end.