I like the framing around, "what is the probability for?" And the answer in this case is that it is for the bookies. It kind of reminds me of the sleeping beauty problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem), where it seems to me that the "correct" probability depends on what you plan on doing with it.
It would be interesting if a team started using analytics to determine which play would gain more fans. Give us the brain-rot sports.
The key insight here is that these probability calculators optimze for engagement rather than understanding. When Nate Silver plots those fluctuating percentages across an election cycle, he's not actually helping anyone make better decisions or undrstand the race more deeply. He's creating a graph that looks like the stock market, which keeps people refreshing the page every five minutes. The same logic applies to sports: a bookie needs accurate probabilites to set spreads, but a fan watching the game doesn't need a number ticking up and down every play. If anything, it distracts from the actual drama of watching athletes compete. The probability calculator isn't analyzing the game for you, it's gamifying your atention span so you stay glued to the broadcast through commercial breaks.
Advertising "win probability" or similar metrics may have much more to do with professional sports promoting gambling rather than any sort of statistical modeling. ESPN even has its own sportsbook.
I am a bit confused. Unless you are referring to different things, you seem to be saying that these probability calculators are accurate on average and that they also at times return garbage. Obviously, both of these things can't simultaneously be true. Am I missing something?
Not so sure about this. Winning teams attract more fans and most sports have a significant home ground advantage. So, with probability well over 0.5, someone who goes to a home game for their team will see them win.
WIth sport as with drama, the successful product is one where the outcome is in enough doubt to keep us excited but where the good guys win in the end.
I like the framing around, "what is the probability for?" And the answer in this case is that it is for the bookies. It kind of reminds me of the sleeping beauty problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem), where it seems to me that the "correct" probability depends on what you plan on doing with it.
It would be interesting if a team started using analytics to determine which play would gain more fans. Give us the brain-rot sports.
Hmm, the Dart-Skattebo Giants might leaning in on your brain-rot idea...
The key insight here is that these probability calculators optimze for engagement rather than understanding. When Nate Silver plots those fluctuating percentages across an election cycle, he's not actually helping anyone make better decisions or undrstand the race more deeply. He's creating a graph that looks like the stock market, which keeps people refreshing the page every five minutes. The same logic applies to sports: a bookie needs accurate probabilites to set spreads, but a fan watching the game doesn't need a number ticking up and down every play. If anything, it distracts from the actual drama of watching athletes compete. The probability calculator isn't analyzing the game for you, it's gamifying your atention span so you stay glued to the broadcast through commercial breaks.
Advertising "win probability" or similar metrics may have much more to do with professional sports promoting gambling rather than any sort of statistical modeling. ESPN even has its own sportsbook.
I am a bit confused. Unless you are referring to different things, you seem to be saying that these probability calculators are accurate on average and that they also at times return garbage. Obviously, both of these things can't simultaneously be true. Am I missing something?
"No one wants to watch a rigged game."
Not so sure about this. Winning teams attract more fans and most sports have a significant home ground advantage. So, with probability well over 0.5, someone who goes to a home game for their team will see them win.
WIth sport as with drama, the successful product is one where the outcome is in enough doubt to keep us excited but where the good guys win in the end.