However, there is something I would love to understand and maybe I am lacking some basic thought here, but why does the appearance of O2 corroborate T? If O2 is very very rare, couldn't it also be a random occurence forcing us to second-guess all the other left-hand factors as well?
Furthermore, why, if T says O1 -> O2 is going to be very very rare mean that when we see O2, the theory is right? Shouldn't it be rather the other way round that when T says O1 -> O2 is extremely rare, we could assume that there is another T* or A or C which is responsible for generating O2 and such should maybe relegate all O2 to uncontrolled / parallel mechanisms?
Presumably the rival scientist (or Scientific Research Program) is predicting, and observing O3. In my reading, it's the successful rival that is really crucial for Lakatos.
Lakatosian defense is aptly summarized by paraphrasing Miraculous Max in "The Princess Bride:" "This theory is _mostly_ dead. And mostly dead means slightly alive!" The part that's slightly alive is the core.
This is like a TV series in which every episode ends in a cliff-hanger!
That last paragraph is so spot on, loved it!
However, there is something I would love to understand and maybe I am lacking some basic thought here, but why does the appearance of O2 corroborate T? If O2 is very very rare, couldn't it also be a random occurence forcing us to second-guess all the other left-hand factors as well?
Furthermore, why, if T says O1 -> O2 is going to be very very rare mean that when we see O2, the theory is right? Shouldn't it be rather the other way round that when T says O1 -> O2 is extremely rare, we could assume that there is another T* or A or C which is responsible for generating O2 and such should maybe relegate all O2 to uncontrolled / parallel mechanisms?
Presumably the rival scientist (or Scientific Research Program) is predicting, and observing O3. In my reading, it's the successful rival that is really crucial for Lakatos.
Following the story with interest
Lakatosian defense is aptly summarized by paraphrasing Miraculous Max in "The Princess Bride:" "This theory is _mostly_ dead. And mostly dead means slightly alive!" The part that's slightly alive is the core.