Love this series. A medium amount of statistics is a dangerous thing. I used to believe this football analytics stuff but I'm with you --- there's just not enough isolation and repeatability to believe any of this.
Thanks! I had to cut it because of flow, but I think a reasonable defense of analytics is to suggest some aggressive moves are not crazy. If you can show that, under reasonable modeling, the go-for-2-down-8 move has a comparable probability of success to kicking the extra point, that's helpful as it adds extra possibilities to the strategy list.
Love this series. A medium amount of statistics is a dangerous thing. I used to believe this football analytics stuff but I'm with you --- there's just not enough isolation and repeatability to believe any of this.
Thanks! I had to cut it because of flow, but I think a reasonable defense of analytics is to suggest some aggressive moves are not crazy. If you can show that, under reasonable modeling, the go-for-2-down-8 move has a comparable probability of success to kicking the extra point, that's helpful as it adds extra possibilities to the strategy list.