> the application of statistics there is nonsensical
Not trying to incite a holy war here, but it does seem like forecasting is a real skill. Leaving aside elections, what's your interpretation of what's going on when a forecaster on a site like Metaculus consistently wins? More generally, what's going on when a forecaster is rated highly using some metric which rewards calibration in addition to correctness?
> the application of statistics there is nonsensical
Not trying to incite a holy war here, but it does seem like forecasting is a real skill. Leaving aside elections, what's your interpretation of what's going on when a forecaster on a site like Metaculus consistently wins? More generally, what's going on when a forecaster is rated highly using some metric which rewards calibration in addition to correctness?