Dutch Books and Book Reviews

In lieu of regular blogging, here's a review of Nate Silver's new book.

Hey there, argmin readers! I’ve been on hiatus finishing up some other writing projects, but I’ll be back to regular blogging on Monday. 

In the meantime, I wanted to share a piece I wrote with Leif Weatherby for The Point reviewing Nate Silver’s new book On The Edge. My first book review! Thanks to Leif for inviting me to collaborate on this, and thanks to The Point for the opportunity.

Here’s a preview:

In the field of Bayesian statistics, betting has served as a metaphor for the probabilistic calculations that we make naturally—a background, subconscious reasoning that informs every decision we make. But in moving Bayesianism out of textbooks and into the wild, Silver takes the metaphor literally, and in doing so turns a descriptive framework into a prescription for practical success. If everyday reasoning looks like betting, then in order to come out on top, you need to spend your life at the casino—and remake the rest of the world in its image.

If I was going to caricature a statistico-philosophical mindset diametrically opposed to the one I’ve been promoting on argmin, it would be this book. On The Edge is a sprawling 500-page ode to gambling. Silver argues that the key to success is embracing the gambler’s mindset. But the book can never shake the facts that most gamblers are miserable and the house always wins.

The review discusses Silver’s history, the bizarre implications of literal interpretations of subjective probability, and the various houses that stack the odds against us, preying on our love and fear of risk.

Read the review here! I’m looking forward to stirring the pot some more on Monday.